EXHIBIT 99.1 - CONF. CALL TRANSCRIPT
Published on
Q1
2009 NIKE, Inc.
Earnings
Release Conference Call Transcript
Operator:
Good afternoon everyone. Welcome to Nike's fiscal 2009 first quarter conference
call. For those who need to reference today's press release, you'll find it at
www.nikebiz.com. Leading today's call is Pamela Catlett, Vice President,
Investor Relations.
Before I
turn the call over to Miss Catlett, let me remind you that participants of this
call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations and
those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed
in the reports filed with the SEC including Forms 8-K, 10-K, and
10-Q.
Some
forward-looking statements concern future orders that are not necessarily
indicative of changes in total revenues for subsequent periods due to mix of
futures and at once orders, change rate fluctuations, order cancellations and
discounts which may vary significantly from quarter to quarter. In addition, it
is important to remember a significant portion of NIKE Incorporated's business
including equipment, most of Nike Retail, NIKE Golf, Cole Haan, Converse,
Hurley, and Umbro are not included in these future numbers.
Finally,
participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. The presentation of
comparable GAAP measures and quantitative reconciliations are found at Nike's
website. This call might also include discussion of non-public financial and
statistical information which is also publicly available at that site,
www.nikebiz.com. Now I would like to turn the call over to Pamela Catlett, Vice
President, Investor Relations.
Pamela
Catlett: Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us today
to discuss Nike's fiscal 2009 first quarter results. As the operator indicated,
participants on today's call may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. A
comparative presentation of reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP reported
items can be found in our press release which as you know was issued about an
hour ago and can be found on our website nikebiz.com.
Joining
us on today's call will be NIKE, Inc. CEO, Mark Parker; followed by Charlie
Denson, President of the Nike Brand; and finally you will hear from our Chief
Financial Officer, Don Blair who will give you an in-depth review of our
financial results. Following their prepared remarks, as usual we will take your
questions and as many of you know, we would like to allow as many of you to ask
questions as possible in the allotted time.
Consequently
we would appreciate you focusing your initial questions to two and in the event
you have additional questions, please do re-queue if others do not cover them.
With that, thank you very much for your cooperation and it is now my pleasure to
introduce NIKE, Inc. CEO, Mark Parker.
Mark
Parker: Thanks Pam, and welcome everybody to the first quarter earnings call for
fiscal year 2009. Q1 again demonstrated the strength of our brands and our
business. We continue to gain share in key markets and deliver growth in revenue
and profitability. That said, we're not stopping to celebrate and we're not
complacent and we're clear on what is needed to deliver our goals through fiscal
year '09 and beyond.
Let's go
to the numbers first. NIKE, Inc. revenue was up 17% to $5.4 billion. That's 28
consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth.
Gross
margins are up 240 basis points. Reported global futures are up 10% which marks
31 consecutive quarters of futures increases. And diluted EPS was down 8% from
Q1 '08, influenced by onetime tax benefits that contributed to $20.20 per
diluted share last year.
As I have
said in the past, Nike will continue to invest in growth opportunities that
offer the greatest potential for return. These Q1 results are in line with our
ability to leverage those investments, our brands and our resources across the
portfolio.
We can't
talk about results or opportunity without considering the broader environment.
While there is financial uncertainty in some sectors, our results continue to
warrant confidence in the power and flexibility of our businesses.
We
recognize the impact of prices, inflation and currency fluctuations and we
realize that no one is immune; all of which reinforces my commitment to our
simple and consistent strategy -- manage for continued growth by leveraging the
competitive advantages that we control; namely innovation, focus, and consumer
relevance. Innovative product is at the core of Nike and practically speaking,
it is where consumers cast their vote on your brand.
We landed
in Beijing with new footwear and apparel for all 28 Olympic sports. We launched
Flywire technology in the Hyperdunk and Zoom Victory spike. We launched
Lunarlite cushioning in the Lunar Racer. We launched new Swift apparel and we're
seeing consumers all over the world embrace these innovations and
others.
By any
objective analysis, we lead in product innovation in our industry and we will
keep that front and center going forward always. Seeing that innovation become
reality, a profitable reality requires focus today more than ever; focus on
maximizing the potential for growth, focus on leveraging our SG&A and other
resources and focus on creating value for shareholders.
We're
just coming off a summer that created tremendous global excitement in sports and
we're moving into the season of championships and team sports. That puts Nike in
a great position to move through the year capitalizing on that
energy.
We're
also focused on leveraging our resources across the portfolio. Our supply chain
is one of Nike's greatest competitive advantages. Lean manufacturing, material
sourcing, digital efficiencies, it all helps us get the right products to the
right places at the right time at the right price and that is good for our
consumers, our retailers, and certainly our gross margins.
Of course
we focus on deploying capital thoughtfully and returning cash to shareholders.
Over the last 10 years, we have repurchased $5.5 billion of stock. As we
complete our current $3 billion program, we will begin a new $5 billion
repurchase program over the next four years.
I can
assure you that this management team is focused on leveraging the entire Nike
portfolio to meet our goal of $23 billion in revenue by the end of fiscal year
2011. We are relevant with consumers because we understand each other. They know
we create innovative products and experiences, they value that performance and
authenticity and that's why we continue to gain market share.
That's
why we've reclaimed our rightful spot atop the running category. When I look at
China and the Beijing Olympics, I see a great example of how Nike leverages our
innovation, focus and consumer relevance. I've spent a lot of time in China
before and during the Olympics.
I have
never been more impressed with our ability to execute on all levels. Our
products were the most compelling and advanced. Our stories and messages were
inspiring and our Nike stores did more than just set sales records. They were
destinations for hundreds of thousands of Chinese consumers.
By every
measure, the Olympic Games achieved its promise for China, for sport and for
Nike. We were the clear winner in Beijing and the choice of Chinese consumers.
More importantly now that the torch has been extinguished, the deep consumer
connections and experiences we built set the stage for a strong sustained
long-term growth in China.
And
what's happening in China right now is happening in every emerging market for
Nike around the world including Brazil, India, Turkey and Russia. People are
embracing Nike as the authentic leader in sports.
But it's
not all about the Nike Brand at the Olympics. Our affiliate businesses also
delivered a strong first quarter as they continue to grow and become a larger
part of the NIKE, Inc. portfolio.
Converse
continues to deliver exceptional results. Revenue was up 32%. Our ONE Star
product in Target is performing beyond our expectations and inventory is lean
and the business is executing extremely well.
Hurley is
gaining some serious top and bottom-line momentum. Revenue was up 38%, the
biggest quarter ever for Hurley. The brand really showed its strength at the
recent Action Sports Retailer Show in San Diego. Action sports as you know, is
one of the fastest-growing segments in our industry and with our NIKE, Inc.
portfolio, specifically Hurley, Converse and the Nike Brand; we're
well-positioned to go after that growth.
In total
our ongoing affiliate business has posted overall revenue growth of 20% and
pretax income growth of 19%. So growing revenue, market share and gross margins,
growing futures, growing brands, I think this shows the power of leadership and
a sound strategy in our industry.
I know
what Nike needs to do to grow. It's the same thing our industry needs to do and
that is obsess on the consumer.
They give
us the insights we need to drive innovation in everything we do. Product
creation, assortment planning, merchandising, all the way through the retail
experience. Everything is always sharper when we stay connected to the
consumer.
And we
connect with consumers through our category offense, a strategy Nike got out in
front of early and is now accelerating. It is the key to the innovation, focus
and relevance I mentioned earlier and it's driving the work we're doing with our
retail partners, segmenting and differentiating our brand and their stores in
the marketplace.
I believe
the future of our industry is based on a more intimate relationship with this
category based consumer and NIKE, Inc. is able to create and realize that future
better than any other company. We have never been more sharply focused and as
deeply aligned as we are right now.
Our
ability to leverage our assets and core competencies across our portfolio of
brands gives us the flexibility to continue to invest in new opportunities
whether it's a new technology, a new category or a new brand. I see tremendous
potential throughout our industry and as the leader, we're clear and confident
in how to turn that potential into real growth and value for our shareholders.
And we will continue to do so. So now here's Charlie with some more news on the
Nike Brand.
Charlie
Denson: Thanks Mark. Good afternoon everyone. Well, the Nike Brand is off to a
solid start for fiscal year '09. It's been an amazing summer, our little summer
of sport and we have been busy.
We
started with the NBA finals where Paul Pierce led the Boston Celtics to their
first title in 22 years. We watched Tiger's amazing Monday playoff win at the
U.S. Open and then Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres led Spain to their first
Euro title in 44 years.
Rafael
Nadal and Roger Federer put on the greatest show ever at Wimbledon. It put
tennis back on the front page and it took Rafa to the number one ranking in the
world only to be followed by Roger's U.S. Open title, his 13th Grand Slam
victory and just one short of tying Pete Samaras’ record. And of course, the
biggest show on earth, the Beijing Olympics.
We had a
heck of a summer for ourselves as well. On the quarter, the Nike Brand generated
record revenue of $4.8 billion up 18%. Every region increased revenue. Global
footwear was up 19% and global apparel was up 18% and all six of our key
categories saw revenue increases year-over-year. So a really solid performance
by the Nike Brand in the first quarter.
I'm very
confident in our ability to build on the success of Q1 and I will give you three
reasons why. First, our category offense. As Mark said, it's at the center of
our growth strategy for the brand and we're just beginning to see the depth of
its true potential. Let's take running for an example.
18 months
ago, Nike held a number of two or three spots around the world with the core
competitive runner; respectable for most, but unacceptable for Nike. By diving
deep and focusing exclusively on the performance-minded runner, we generated
strong revenue increases across all product platforms in all
regions.
Revenue
from the running experience in NikeTown in New York is up 45%. And we held a
little 10-K run we called The Human Race. Over 800,000 people showed up. It was
the biggest running event in history and something only Nike could
do.
We've
created some real energy in running and we did it by connecting completely with
the athlete. It was all enabled by Nike+ which starts to give you a sense of the
importance of social networking as part of our brand experience. That's the
category offense at work. We are applying that same intensity to all six of our
key categories.
Okay,
confidence builder number two. It's retail. We're getting a really clear view of
how to change the game in retail and we're starting to see results in stores
now.
Our
retail revenues are up 18% around the world and in the U.S. we saw a 6% increase
in comp store sales for in-line stores. I just mentioned the running experience
in New York but you'd also have to add the Bootroom in NikeTown London where
revenues are up 40%.
And on
the digital side, e-commerce and customization continue to grow. There's more on
retail, but I'm going to come back to that in a minute.
Finally,
let me tell you a little bit about Beijing. This was by far our most successful
single event ever on multiple fronts. The presence and messaging of the Nike
Brand was the best I've ever seen.
Chinese
consumers really connected with what Nike is all about -- innovation,
authenticity, individuality, a passion for sports. They did really get it. And
we set sales records in stores all over China.
In fact,
I was in our store on Wan Fu Jing Road road in Beijing. It was so crowded I
couldn't even see the floor. These Olympic Games were the most watched Olympics
in history and so our investment in Beijing is paying off, not just in China but
it is impacting our business all over the world.
One last
thing on Beijing. I mentioned about eight months ago that this Olympics had the
potential to re-ignite basketball around the world. I think that's exactly what
happened.
We saw
the best basketball tournament ever played. It was a global tournament and it
had global stars; great for the game and great for Nike. It was a microcosm of
what is going on with basketball worldwide. And by the way, eight out of every
10 players on every team, men's and women's, were wearing Nike shoes. I can
confidently say that we now have two global team sports, soccer and basketball,
and we lead in both.
Okay,
real quick let's look at the regions. Starting with the U.S., the region
performed extremely well on a very tough retail environment. Futures are up and
our total revenue is up 8%. Our retail revenues increased 16%.
We saw
very strong performances in running, action sports and basketball. Apparel
revenue increased 9% with strong advances in training apparel and double-digit
growth in both running and basketball apparel. Sportswear apparel remains a work
in progress.
We are
excited about the response to our new Mercer Street store in New York City. It
is a great example of sportswear as a brand extension to our authentic category
positioning.
We see a
lot of momentum and a rising average selling price. Consumers are embracing our
new technologies and the benefits that they're providing.
Overall,
there's a lot of visible growth opportunity in the U.S. Consumers are a bit
cautious but they are passionate about those products and brands that deliver
exceptional performance. We continue to be the brand of choice.
Over in
Europe and EMEA, we're off to a strong start with football and running the
leading the way into the future. On a constant dollar basis, revenue was up 5%
as we continue to grow in the key countries.
In
Germany and the Alpine countries, revenues were up 11% which speaks well to our
strategy at the European championships. Turkey and Russia are up over 30% and in
the UK, our revenues climbed 5%.
We're
seeing some tough economic conditions in Spain, Italy and France where we're
staying focused on connecting with consumers and managing our distribution and
our inventories. In the Americas region, first quarter revenues grew by 19% and
futures are up 24%. Football, running, women's training and sportswear all had
strong double-digit growth.
Brazil,
after taking over the previously licensed apparel business, our football apparel
business is up over 60% and our sportswear continues to sell well. There's lots
of momentum building in the Americas.
And then
finally back to Asia, revenue was up 26% including growth in every major country
in the region. Japan continues to trend up with revenue growth of 2% and futures
are up at 4%. And in China, revenue increased over 50%. I have already talked
about the Olympics but just in case I haven't convinced anyone yet of our
success and staying power in China, I'll just say one more thing. Our futures
orders there are up nearly 50%.
Okay, so
let's go back to retail. Our strategy here is based on one thing -- that Nike
Retail is a mirror of the Nike Brand. But it's not about doors. It's about
experiences.
The Nike
Brand always leads with innovative product and that pipeline has the best
product we have ever seen. Flywire technology alone is going to reset the
standard of performance in multiple categories. That is a compelling
story.
The Nike
Brand is all about this category focus. Any retail execution we do will be
driven through the lens of core consumers in our six key categories. And the
Nike Brand creates a sense of community.
You heard
Mark talk about that consumer, how relevant it is to the consumer. Community is
a big part of it. Put those together and you get the running experience of
NikeTown New York or you get the Bootroom in London. You get a category focus
that drives the entire consumer experience all the way through
retail.
These are
the advantages we bring to our retail destinations and to our wholesale
partners. This is how we define and scale new concepts and we will continue to
invest in the people, the processes and the structures necessary to create
distinction and separation for the Nike Brand.
So Q1 is
in the books. We exceeded expectations because we put more innovative product
into the market and we got the product to more people all over the world than
ever before.
Our brand
is strong and we are laser focused on leveraging resources and managing our
business well to deliver long-term sustainable growth. These are the reasons we
feel confident that we can continue to deliver results in these interesting
times. So now here is Don to give you the details on our financial
performance.
Donald
Blair: Thanks Charlie. Well as you have heard from my colleagues, we think Q1
was a great start to fiscal 2009. All of our brands posted higher revenues for
the quarter and our gross margin grew 240 basis points.
While
first quarter earnings per share declined as a result of planned SG&A
investments, and the comparison to last year's onetime tax benefit, we're right
where we expected to be at this point in the year. On balance, we're very happy
with the strength of our brands and the performance of our
businesses.
Over the
past several years, you've often heard me talk about our commitment to investing
for the future while also delivering growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow.
In the dynamic global environment in which we compete, our focus on managing all
of the levers of the NIKE, Inc. P&L and balance sheet has allowed us to
achieve that goal and is a strength we believe distinguishes our
Company.
To
paraphrase Mark, today's results reflect our ability to leverage our
investments. We have invested in our brands to drive topline growth and we
posted double-digit revenue growth on a constant currency basis. We have
invested in emerging markets. In this quarter China grew over 50%, Russia grew
over 40% and Brazil grew 30%.
We have
invested in our multi-brand portfolio and revenues from our continuing Other
businesses are up almost 20%. We've invested in our supply chain to optimize our
efficiency and our gross margins grew strongly despite Asian cost pressures and
we have invested in Nike Brand retail which grew 14% in constant dollars
highlighted by a 6% increase in comp store sales for in-line
stores.
In short,
revenue's up, futures are up, gross margins are strong and consumers continue to
seek the Nike Brand experience around the world. In today's environment,
managing our business to invest for the future and deliver growth today means we
remain relentlessly focused on healthy topline growth, keeping our inventories
tight and driving a more rigorous focus on cost management throughout the
organization. We think we have made the right investments and we will continue
to leverage them to fuel our growth.
We do not
know where every macroeconomic variable will land, but we do know that if we
stay focused on the levers we can control, we will put ourselves in the best
possible position to deliver our financial goals for this year and into the
future. Now onto the quarter.
In Q1
NIKE, Inc. revenue grew 17% to over $5.4 billion. Currency changes contributed
about seven points of that growth. Excluding currency changes, Nike Brand
revenues grew 11%.
On a
currency neutral basis, Nike Brand footwear and apparel futures orders scheduled
for delivery from September 2008 through January 2009, grew 9% up from 8% growth
on our last call and driven by accelerated growth in orders for U.S. footwear.
Diluted earnings per share for the quarter declined 8% to $1.03 reflecting
SG&A investments this year and comparison against last year's onetime tax
benefit. Adjusted for the prior year tax items, EPS would've increased
12%.
Gross
margin for the quarter grew 240 basis points to 47.2%, somewhat higher than we'd
expected. We anticipated many of the factors that drove the year-on-year
improvement -- better exchange rates, effective sourcing cost initiatives,
retail expansion, selected footwear price increases, and a shift in mix to
higher margin styles. The upside came primarily as a result of higher margins in
our Other businesses and less rapid cost inflation in Asia than we
expected.
SG&A
for the quarter grew 29% including five points from currency changes. On a
currency neutral basis, demand creation grew 39% due primarily to investments in
the European football championships and the Beijing Olympics.
Operating
overhead grew 14% on a constant currency basis driven by investments in
infrastructure to support key growth drivers such as owned retail, emerging
markets and our Other businesses. On the ground activities around the summer
sporting events and increased stock based compensation expense also contributed
to operating overhead growth.
Net
interest income for the first quarter was $10 million, $14 million below last
year due primarily to lower interest rates. Our effective tax rate for the first
quarter was 28.5%, 13.5 percentage points higher than Q1 last year when we
benefited from the onetime utilization of past foreign losses.
The
strength of our balance sheet also continues to be a true point of difference
for Nike particularly in the current financial climate. For the quarter, we
generated $249 million of free cash flow from operations, up 10% year-on-year. A
key driver was working capital which reflected a six day improvement in the cash
conversion cycle.
While we
continued to invest in our business, we also returned a significant amount of
cash to our shareholders. During the quarter we repurchased $430 million of
stock and paid out $113 million in dividends. We expect to complete our current
share repurchase program later this year, about 18 months early.
Earlier
this week our Board authorized a new four year $5 billion share repurchase
program to begin as soon as our current program is completed. This step
reaffirms our confidence in the strength of our cash flow and our long-term
growth potential. Our return on invested capital for the 12 months ended August
31 was 23.2%, 70 basis points below the prior twelve-month period primarily due
to the positive impact of the onetime tax benefit on the year ago
figure.
With that
recap of our first quarter performance, let me now give you some additional
perspective on results across our operating units starting with U.S.. Our U.S.
region posted excellent results as revenue grew 8% to $1.8 billion and gross
margins improved strongly over the prior year.
Pretax
income increased only 1% as increased demand creation spending partially offset
the growth in revenues and margins. The strength of the Nike Brand in the U.S.
is evident by the continued strength of our top retail destinations. Seven out
of our 10 largest wholesale partners delivered year-over-year revenue growth
with renewed energy from athletic specialty accounts.
Revenues
in Nike owned retail stores in the U.S. grew 16% for the quarter while comp
store sales at Nike in-line stores increased 8%. Our e-commerce business grew
more than 30%.
U.S.
footwear revenues increased 9% for the quarter, significantly outpacing the
market. The growth was driven by the running, soccer, and women's training
categories within the Nike Brand and Brand Jordan which expanded its position as
the number two footwear brand in the U.S..
U.S.
apparel revenues grew 9% for the quarter driven by double-digit growth in
performance products, partially offset by continued weakness in sportswear.
Total U.S. futures grew 3% versus the prior year powered by strong growth in
footwear partially offset by lower apparel futures, primarily
sportswear.
In our
European region which includes the Middle East and Africa, first quarter
revenues grew 20% including 15 points of growth from currency. On a currency
neutral basis, most countries in the region posted higher sales with footwear
and equipment delivering year-on-year growth.
The
emerging markets in the region drove the majority of the growth, partially
offset by weakness in southern Europe. For the first quarter, pretax income for
Europe grew 17% reflecting revenue growth, gross margin improvement and stronger
European currencies.
Pretax
income growth was tempered by large demand creation investments around the
EuroChamps and the Olympics. The Asia-Pacific region reported revenue growth of
36% in the first quarter including 10 points of growth from
currency.
On a
currency neutral basis, every product type and most countries in the region
grew. Revenues in China expanded more than 50% fueled by retail expansion and
highly integrated product, brand and retail execution around the Olympics. For
the quarter, pretax income for the region grew 15% to $186 million as revenue
growth and higher gross margins more than offset investments in demand creation
in China infrastructure.
In the
Americas region, first quarter revenues grew 26% with currency changes
accounting for approximately seven points of growth. On a currency neutral
basis, growth was balanced across all product lines and countries. For the
quarter, pretax income grew 18% to $69 million driven by higher revenues,
improved gross margins and overhead leverage.
First
quarter revenues from the businesses we report as Other grew 7% and pretax
income declined by 9%. These reported growth rates reflect the sale of the Bauer
and businesses and the acquisition of Umbro. For our continuing businesses,
Converse, Cole Haan, Hurley and NIKE Golf, revenue grew 20% and pretax income
grew 19%. In its first full quarter as part of the Nike portfolio, Umbro broke
even.
As we
consider the outlook for the balance of the year, we remain confident in our
ability to manage our business through times of economic uncertainty. At this
point, our financial outlook for fiscal 2009 remains largely
unchanged.
For the
second and third quarters we continue to expect high single digit revenue
growth. Revenue growth in the fourth quarter will likely be lower, reflecting
comparisons against strong sales at the end of last year as we ramped up to the
Olympics and EuroChamps. For the full year, we expect high single digit revenue
growth within our long-term target range.
We began
the year expecting modest growth in gross margins. Needless to say, we're very
pleased by our strong results for the first quarter and now believe gross
margins for the full year could be 100 basis points above the prior
year.
We expect
balance of year growth to be lower than first-quarter levels due to changes in
product mix and comparisons against strong margins last year. In addition while
the most grim forecast of oil prices, labor costs and exchange rates have not
yet been realized, we remain somewhat cautious in our gross margin outlook for
the year.
We expect
the growth in SG&A to decelerate significantly over the balance of the year
as we return to more normalized levels following planned investments in the
Olympics and EuroChamps over the last two quarters. For the full year we expect
low double-digit growth in SG&A reflecting low to mid-teens growth in the
second and third quarters offset by a year-on-year decline for the fourth
quarter.
SG&A
growth for the year will be driven by higher demand creation spending and
infrastructure investments in emerging markets, retail and our Other businesses.
As we've indicated earlier, we're continuing to focus on tightening and
leveraging our core operating overhead expenses.
We
anticipate interest income to continue to track below prior year levels,
reflecting the decline in short-term interest rates while other income for the
year should improve driven by smaller hedge losses. At this point, we estimate
our fiscal 2009 effective tax rate will be at or slightly below
28.5%.
So in
summary, we're very pleased that we delivered another excellent quarter of
profitable growth and we're committed to continuing to do so for the rest of
fiscal 2009 and beyond. Now I'll turn the call back to the operator so we can
take your questions.
+++
q-and-a
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Robert Drbul, Lehman Brothers.
Robert
Drbul: Hi, thanks, it's actually Barclays Capital now, but thank you.
Congratulations on a very good result, you guys. I guess if I might be able to
squeeze in a question and a half, Pam; Don, the first question is, just around
the international business -- it seemed very strong.
Can you
help us to get comfortable with the currency going forward in terms of the
strengthening dollar and how things are hedged out for the rest of the year? And
the other half a question would be on the oil prices. With oil prices
moderating, what would be the expectation in the gross margin guidance? How have
you planned that in the 100 basis points for the year going
forward?
Donald
Blair: Well first of all, I guess to address currency, our outlook at this point
for the balance of the year is broadly consistent with where we are right now.
That doesn't mean that there isn't going to be some volatility.
But as
far as this particular year is concerned, the guidance we have given you is that
we are broadly going to be roughly where we are today. Now as far as our hedging
is concerned, we're largely hedged against our transactional exposure against
the major currencies.
For
fiscal '09, you know we do expect that in the long run we're probably going to
see some dollar strengthening. And so in the last six to nine months, we have
been doing some extended hedging out into fiscal '10 and '11.
So at
this point we have some protection for '10 and '11. We have a great deal of
protection against fiscal '09. So we're largely hedged for '09 and we're putting
hedges out into '10 and '11. And the way that we think about this is hedges are
really intended to give us time to adjust our business model.
So what
we're also doing is with the expectation that we're going to see some dollar
strengthening, we're working the other elements of the P&L around product
and looking at cost structures and so on. So it's something that is definitely
on our radar screen.
Oil, what
I would say is at this stage oil comes into our cost structure over an extended
period of time. So we had expected this to flow in on a relatively quicker basis
than it did.
That is
why our Q1 numbers were pretty strong. And what we are expecting over the
balance of the year is we are still going to see some cost pressure out of Asia
but we definitely think that it's coming in a little slower than what we
expected.
Robert
Drbul: Great, thank you very much. Good Luck.
Pam
Catlett: Thanks, Bob.
Operator:
Robert Ohmes, Merrill Lynch.
Robert
Ohmes: My question is a regional question. I was hoping you could give us an
update on your partnered stores in terms of the numbers you have in China,
Russia and Eastern Europe and some rough guidance on how rapidly you expect to
grow those regions; the partnered store numbers over the next year or so. And
then the related to that, your inventory levels, if you could sort of comment on
inventory levels in China and post the Olympics, both yours and competitors and
if you see any sort of short-term inventory issues post Beijing and also
inventory builds in Russia and Eastern Europe as well. Thank you.
Charlie
Denson: Robert, this is Charlie. I will talk a little bit about the store
growth.
We will
continue to see the store growth expansion on a pretty consistent basis. We
don't see it really slowing down too much. We had a little bit of an
acceleration to get some extra stores open just prior to the games in
China.
But it is
a pretty well-oiled machine now and as we've talked many times about the success
that we've had in the core cities and we're now starting to branch out into the
Tier 2, Tier 3 cities and would expect to continue the expansion levels at
relatively same pace that we have been on over the last couple of years. We have
the capacity and the capability to do that and we will continue to do that with
our partners.
With
regards to Russia and Central Europe, we continue to see a pretty robust
environment in both areas where we're seeing some great growth coming out of
Russia, Turkey, places like that. And we're really following a lot of the same
model that we're following in China with partnership, mono-brand type retail
stores.
So, I
would say that we would start to see a little bit -- although I'm going to be
very cautious here -- but a little bit of an acceleration in places like Russia
where we can't really start to build some of our capabilities and capacities. It
is in a much earlier stage of growth than China is overall.
(multiple
speakers) I'm sorry, Robert. I forgot. The inventories in China coming out of
the Olympics? We feel very good about them. We are in good shape. We're building
- --continuing to build our factory store outlet program in China, that it will
continue to be an assist in our ability to manage our inventories over the long
haul.
And so we
feel pretty good about coming out of the Olympics. We knew that there would be a
little bit of a buildup going into the games. We certainly did that. As we noted
in the prepared remarks, we broke all of our records at retail.
So it was
a huge success for us on the ground in all the stores whether it was in Beijing
or out into the geographies. So we feel very confident that we are in a good
place to continue to grow in China. I think the futures orders numbers reflect
that as well.
Robert
Ohmes: Is there any concern about your competitors and their inventory position
sort of pressuring the market near-term?
Charlie
Denson: Well, I'm going to leave that question for them to answer.
Robert
Ohmes: All right, good enough. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Jim Duffy, Thomas Weisel Partners.
Jim
Duffy: Yes, thanks very much; nice quarter. One thing I'm hoping you can address
- -- there's been some concern in the investment community that at the end of the
Olympics the party is over in China. Your futures suggest this isn't the case
but could you maybe speak to a little bit how you can sustain the momentum in
China?
Charlie
Denson: We talked about this quite a bit going into the games and actually over
the last couple of years. Our destination was not the Olympic Games. In fact, we
actually tried to position that as more of a launching pad than a destination. I
think as I like to say, once the circus leaves town we were going to be there
for the long haul and we have committed to that.
We have a
completely well-thought-out and positioned branding campaign that continues now
well beyond the Olympics, continuing to stay connected with the consumer. And
one of the things that we're seeing coming out of the Olympics which we did
anticipate was just a completely accelerated interest around sport that fuels
both participation as well as association. And I think those things are starting
to play themselves out. I mean it's early days but we feel very confident that
the Chinese consumer and the Chinese athlete has a more robust appetite than
ever.
Mark
Parker: I would add that the retail execution for Nike in China is really some
of the best in the world. Personally, incredibly impressed being in Beijing
during the games and seeing the execution we had at retail was really
phenomenal.
And I
think it's really setting the stage for Nike retail in other parts of the world.
And I couldn't agree more with Charlie that the appetite for sports in China is
tremendous and really feel like the Olympics went a long way to kind of
reinforcing our brand strength in that market. So a great accelerator for us and
we are very bullish on Nike in China post the Olympics.
Jim
Duffy: Great, I look forward to further success.
Pamela
Catlett: Thank you Jim. As the operator brings in the next person, I want to
just clarify one number that was stated, the retail comp number that Don and
Charlie both spoke to for the U.S., the number is 8% growth.
Operator:
John Shanley, Susquehanna International.
John
Shanley: Pam, you just saved me a question. So thank you very much for that U.S.
comp.
Pamela
Catlett: I must have known you were next.
John
Shanley: At any rate, Charlie, you mentioned in discussing Europe that some of
the countries in the CEMEA region did extremely well and some of the countries
in Western Europe surprisingly enough, the UK did well in addition. I wonder if
you could break out for us -- just give us an overall regional comparison in
terms of how the first quarter developed for the CEMEA region versus the rest of
Western Europe in aggregate.
Charlie
Denson: Central Europe continues to be very strong growth. And I think Don went
through some of the numbers up front as well. I think where we have seen the
softness is really along the Mediterranean, Iberia, Southern France, Italy, with
probably the biggest challenge right now in Spain and Portugal where we have
seen some significant softness.
I think
one of the things and obviously as we watch this, one of the things that I would
just say that we've kind of done some due diligence here in the sense that the
brand is in very good shape, that we're looking at some overall economic
conditions that are slowing down maybe a little but faster than in some of the
other parts of Europe. So we aren't as concerned around the brand as we are just
keeping an eye on the business, the mechanics, the inventories and all the
things that we do in a slower economic state.
John
Shanley: Is there a possibility that eventually Eastern Europe could be as big
or maybe even bigger than Western Europe for you guys?
Charlie
Denson: Well, when you look at the overall capacity, I mean certainly from a
population standpoint I think the buying power still has a way to go. We have
got some countries lining up to get into the EU but then there's some issues
there too as well. But the other thing I guess I would say that makes me feel
pretty confident and comfortable is the appetite for sport from a consumer
standpoint is every bit as big in Western Europe -- I mean in Eastern Europe as
it is in Western Europe.
John
Shanley: Fair enough. My other question is to you, Don. You mentioned in your
prepared remarks that U.S. footwear futures were one of the key drivers for the
9% increase in overall future numbers and the U.S. futures in total were up 3%.
Can we assume from that that the footwear segment of the U.S. future markets
were up substantially more than 3%?
Donald
Blair: Yes, you can infer that. The number that you quoted, the 9%, that is
actually U.S. footwear growth in the first quarter. That's revenue growth in the
first quarter but your conclusion is correct. U.S. footwear was up to
significantly more than 3%.
John
Shanley: Would you be so good enough to share with us what (multiple
speakers)
Donald
Blair: Not that good. As you know John, we traditionally don't get to that level
(multiple speakers)
Pamela
Catlett: He knows.
John
Shanley: He knows and you can't hurt in trying though (multiple speakers) Thanks
a lot; appreciate it.
Operator:
Kate McShane, Citigroup.
Kate
McShane: Just following up on John's question, in Europe with some of the macro
concerns in Europe, is it possible that we can see similar type of market share
gains that we have seen in the U.S. from Nike and are you seeing that at all so
far?
Charlie
Denson: Well certainly the opportunity is out there. We feel great about the --
that's why I talk so much about our brand position in these markets because you
know the brand numbers, the brand recognition studies that we do on an ongoing
basis continue to show a very strong brand position.
So there
is some opportunity there. I think it depends on how long and how severe some of
these conditions go on and then what goes on in some of the local marketplaces.
But we would like to think we can take advantage of that.
Kate
McShane: And then unrelated to that, you mentioned that Umbro broke even during
the quarter. Can you update us on where you are with integrating that
acquisition and is the guidance for Umbro still expected to be $0.10 dilutive
this year?
Mark
Parker: Yes, on the $0.10 dilutive expectation for the year. That's where we sit
right now. Actually I feel incredibly good about the progress we have made over
the last few months in really getting Umbro to a better position.
Obviously
as we said, we're really working to try to leverage their history and heritage
in the world football which is deep and rich as you know. We have -- practically
speaking, we're jumping in and helping to shore up the leadership team there and
feel really good about where we are there in some critical
position.
We've
done a lot to help them on the operational and global sourcing capability side
of the business; really helping them accelerates the global distribution
expansion opportunities that they have got. Product-wise, incredible progress
from where they have been to where they are now both on the footwear side of the
business particularly on the performance side and then also on the apparel side
of the business.
So we
really feel like we are -- really put a great team together on the Nike side to
go in and work with the talent that's already there at Umbro to try to shore up
the areas that are going to help Umbro realize their potential here going
through the year and obviously out into the future. So great, great leverage
opportunity; again I continue to look at Umbro like I do Converse.
Converse
has a tremendous amount of opportunity as Umbro does. So it is applying the
competencies, capabilities that we have to help them leverage that and we have
made great progress over this last 90 days or so.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Sam Poser, Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.
Sam
Poser: I just have a follow-up on the average selling prices in the U.S., if you
could give us some idea of what kind of growth that you saw and a little bit of
color as well on your channels of distribution within the U.S. and where your
major strengths were.
Charlie
Denson: Our average selling price -- I mean we're not going to give out specific
numbers. But the good news is that there up. We feel really good about some of
the new premium performance product that has gone into the
marketplace.
We've
referenced product like the Hyperdunk and the Zoom Victory which are
specifically products that were featured in the Olympic campaign but we also
have seen some great response to some of the more premium apparel products, the
iconic products that we put into the marketplace which is a great indicator for
us.
And so I
think those are the types of things that we use as indicators in regards to what
the consumer's appetite is for new innovation and continues to give us a lot of
confidence going forward because our innovation agenda is still pretty well --
the pipelines are still pretty full with things coming down the
road.
Unidentified
Company Representative: There was a second question too (multiple
speakers)
Charlie
Denson: Sure, I think -- well our sporting goods channels continue to do
extremely well and we have seen some really nice progress coming out of both the
athletic specialty channel as well as some of our own retail. So I think you
guys obviously follow the U.S. retail numbers as well as anybody.
And you
have seen some of the progress that they have made and we're very excited about
some of the new environments that we're working on, both that you have seen that
we mentioned in the NikeTown stores as well as some of the things that were
going on with our partners with a category focus. So, no big news flash coming
out of the commentary. I think it's pretty consistent with what you guys have
seen across the landscape over the quarter.
Sam
Poser: Could I just have a quick follow-up on as far as the ASP's and how they
may have affected the futures numbers as maybe as percent or were there any
impact there?
Donald
Blair: I actually don't have that one close to hand but my belief is it's pretty
consistent with the quarter.
Pamela
Catlett: Thank you Sam. Operator, unless -- do we have anymore in the
queue.
Operator:
No, we do not.
Pamela
Catlett: Thank you everyone for joining us and we look forward to speaking again
soon.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for
your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.